Syria's Rekindled Civil War: The Rise of HTS and Its Impact on Humanitarian Crisis

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has seen a resurgence in violence with the recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS). This militant group, which has publicly distanced itself from its jihadist roots as a regional branch of al Qaeda, has been leading the charge against the Assad regime. The objective of HTS, as stated by its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, remains the overthrow of the Assad regime, which has been propped up by Iran and Russia.

The Current Situation

The sudden advance of HTS has taken many by surprise, with significant gains including the capture of Aleppo, Syria's second most populous city. This has led to a dramatic escalation in the conflict, resulting in over 820 deaths, including more than 100 civilians, since the start of the offensive[1].

Key Developments

• HTS Offensive: The recent offensive by HTS has significantly escalated the Syrian civil war, with major gains including the capture of Aleppo.
• Casualties: Over 820 people have been killed since the start of the offensive, including more than 100 civilians[1].

Objectives of HTS

The primary objective of HTS is to overthrow the Assad regime, as stated by its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani. This goal is driven by a desire to establish a new political order in Syria, free from the influence of the current regime and its international backers.

HTS's Strategy

• Regime Change: The primary objective of HTS is to overthrow the Assad regime, as stated by its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani[1].
• Territorial Control: HTS aims to control strategic areas, which can strengthen their position in the region and disrupt supply lines or communication networks for opposing forces[2].

Humanitarian Crisis

The humanitarian crisis is dire, with tens of thousands of civilians fleeing the fighting. Despite a deal for safe passage, many civilians have been attacked while attempting to flee, leading to dire conditions in refugee camps. Schools in Raqqa and Tabqqa have been turned into makeshift shelters for internally displaced persons (IDPs), highlighting the severe impact on civilian populations.

Refugee Situation

• Refugee Numbers: Over 6.5 million Syrians are recognized as refugees and asylum seekers, with 47% being children. The UN Refugee Agency estimates that 90% of the population lives below the poverty line[3].
• Attacks on Civilians: Despite a deal for safe passage, many civilians have been attacked while attempting to flee, leading to dire conditions in refugee camps[1].

International Involvement

Both pro- and anti-regime forces are dependent on external sponsors, with Iran and Russia supporting the Assad regime, and the U.S. backing Kurdish-led forces. This international involvement has complicated the conflict, making it a proxy war with global implications.

External Sponsors

• Iran and Russia: Both countries have provided significant military and financial support to the Assad regime, enabling it to maintain control over large parts of Syria.
• U.S. and Turkey: The U.S. has backed Kurdish-led forces, while Turkey has supported various opposition groups, including HTS[2].

Humanitarian Needs

The humanitarian needs in Syria are immense, with over 13 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity. The UN's humanitarian appeal remains less than 13% funded, leading to a dire situation for millions of Syrians.

Food Insecurity

• Food Insecurity: Nearly 13 million people are food insecure, with 3.1 million facing acute hunger. The UN's humanitarian appeal remains less than 13% funded, leading to a dire situation for millions of Syrians[3].

Regional Dynamics

The conflict in Syria has significant regional implications, with Turkey maintaining control along the northern border and increasing attacks on Kurdish forces. Israel regularly strikes different military positions in Syria, including the Damascus and Aleppo airports.

Turkey’s Role

• Border Control: Turkey maintains control along the northern border and has increased attacks on Kurdish forces.
• Support for HTS: Turkey has supported various opposition groups, including HTS, complicating the conflict[2].

Israel’s Involvement

• Airstrikes: Israel regularly strikes different military positions in Syria, including the Damascus and Aleppo airports.
• Security Concerns: Israel's involvement is driven by security concerns, particularly the presence of Iranian forces and Hezbollah in Syria[2].

Immediate Humanitarian Response

The urgent need for humanitarian aid cannot be overstated. Organizations like the UN Refugee Agency are working tirelessly to address the crisis, but more needs to be done.

UN Efforts

• Aid Distribution: The UN Refugee Agency is distributing aid to affected areas, but funding remains a significant challenge.
• Refugee Support: The UN is providing support to refugees, including food, shelter, and medical care[3].

Regional Diplomacy

Regional powers like Turkey and Iran play a crucial role in the conflict. Diplomatic engagement is essential to finding a peaceful resolution.

Turkey and Iran

• Diplomatic Efforts: Both Turkey and Iran have engaged in diplomatic efforts, but more needs to be done to find a lasting solution.
• Ceasefire Agreements: Previous ceasefire agreements have been short-lived, highlighting the need for sustained diplomatic engagement[2].

Long-term Solutions

Peace talks and international mediation efforts are crucial to finding a long-term solution to the conflict.

Peace Talks

• International Mediation: International mediation efforts are essential to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
• Inclusive Dialogue: Inclusive dialogue involving all parties is necessary to address the root causes of the conflict[2].

Impact on Civilians

The conflict has had a devastating impact on civilians, with attacks on refugee convoys and dire conditions in refugee camps.

Civilian Casualties

• Civilian Deaths: Over 100 civilians have been killed since the start of the offensive, highlighting the severe impact on civilian populations[1].
• Refugee Camps: Refugee camps are overcrowded and lack basic amenities, leading to dire conditions for internally displaced persons[1].

In conclusion, the Syrian civil war has seen a significant escalation with the recent offensive by HTS. The humanitarian crisis is dire, with tens of thousands of civilians fleeing the fighting. International involvement has complicated the conflict, making it a proxy war with global implications. Immediate humanitarian response, regional diplomacy, and long-term solutions are crucial to addressing the crisis and finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

References

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Syrian_opposition_offensives
[2] https://lansinginstitute.org/2024/12/02/hts-offensive-and-its-global-implications/
[3] https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15744.doc.htm
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Syrian_opposition_offensive
[5] https://lansinginstitute.org/2024/12/02/hts-offensive-and-its-global-implications/