The Unstoppable Under Trend in Army-Navy Football: Why Bettors Are Flocking to the Under
Explore the remarkable under trend in Army-Navy football, captivating bettors with 17 of 18 games hitting the under.
Army-Navy Game Betting: The Unstoppable Under Trend Explained
The Army-Navy football game is one of the most iconic and closely watched events in college football. However, it is not just the game itself that draws attention but also the betting trends surrounding it. One of the most striking trends in recent years is the consistent underperformance of the total points scored in these games. This phenomenon has been so pronounced that it has become a staple of betting strategies for the annual matchup.
Historical Context
Since 2006, the Army-Navy game has seen the under hit an astonishing 16 consecutive times. This streak was broken in 2022 when the over marginally hit by five points, but the under returned with a vengeance in 2023, closing at an all-time low of 28.5 points. The 2023 game was particularly notable as it ended with an intentional safety, preserving the under despite a close final score of 17-11[4].
Current Season Analysis
Despite the impressive offenses of both teams this season, the under trend remains a significant factor. Army, ranked 19th in the country with an 11-1 record, has averaged 32.92 points per game, its highest since 1985. Navy, with an 8-3 record, has averaged 32.27 points per game, its best since 2019. However, their respective performances in rivalry games have been mixed, with Army's game against Air Force going under 38.5 points and Navy's game against Air Force going over 37.5 points[4].
Betting Insights
Sportsbooks have taken note of this trend, opening the total for the 2024 game at 41.5 points, the highest since 2017. However, early betting action has seen the total drop to 38.5 before rising back to 39.5, indicating a mix of traditional under bets and newer over bets based on this season's performances[4].
Key Pieces of Information
- Historical Under Trend: The under has hit in 17 of the past 18 Army-Navy games.
- Recent Season Performance: Army averaged 32.92 points per game, while Navy averaged 32.27 points per game.
- Rivalry Game Outcomes: Army's game against Air Force went under 38.5 points, while Navy's game against Air Force went over 37.5 points.
- Betting Totals: The total for the 2024 game was initially set at 41.5 points but has adjusted to 39.5 points based on early betting action.
- Team Records: Army is 11-1 with a conference championship, while Navy is 8-3 and finished third in their conference.
Expert Insights
Adrian Horton, ESPN BET director of North American sports trading, noted that their internal modeling and evaluations of both teams throughout this season determined the initial total, which was almost two touchdowns higher than last year's total. "From there, team news and betting activity will play a role in movement. If the public is behind the under because of the history of Army-Navy, we'll keep adjusting to that action," Horton explained[4].
Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook's head of football, emphasized that the Army-Navy game represents the consistently lone exception to the public largely betting overs. "The tradition of an Army-Navy under is still going to be on the betting public's mind," despite the newly explosive offenses. Early action would seem to back up that notion, with the under attracting 29.8% of bets and 49.1% of the money at the sportsbook[4].
Actionable Advice
Given the historical under trend and the current season's performances, bettors should consider the under as a viable option. However, it is crucial to monitor the betting action and team news leading up to the game, as these factors can significantly influence the total.
Conclusion
The Army-Navy football game is a unique event in college football, with its defensive prowess leading to a remarkable under trend. Despite the teams' impressive offenses this season, the under remains a popular pick for bettors. By understanding the historical context, current season analysis, and betting insights, readers can make informed decisions about their betting strategies for this iconic game.
References
Additional Data
| Year | Total Points | Under/Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 33.5 | Over |
| 2021 | 32.5 | Under |
| 2020 | 30.5 | Under |
| 2019 | 41 | Under |
Key Takeaways
- Historical Under Trend: The under has hit in 17 of the past 18 Army-Navy games.
- Recent Season Performance: Army averaged 32.92 points per game, while Navy averaged 32.27 points per game.
- Betting Totals: The total for the 2024 game was initially set at 41.5 points but has adjusted to 39.5 points based on early betting action.
Final Thoughts
The Army-Navy football game is a testament to the unpredictability and excitement of college football. The under trend, despite the teams' impressive offenses this season, remains a significant factor in betting strategies. By staying informed and adaptable, bettors can make the most of this iconic matchup.